Updated February 01, 2022
I. India's stated aim has always been to be an exporter of defence armament rather than a net buyer. In case there is adequate client satisfaction, other ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Vietnam may also acquire this missile. India had been exporting defence items on the low end of the spectrum like Patrol vessels, military helmet etc and the nascent Indian credibility in this niche domain may give its image as a defence exporter a boost and elevate its stature as a regional superpower. It can act as a springboard for New Delhi's ambitions and give an added filip to Prime Minister Modi's "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (self reliant India).
II. Phillipines is being browbeaten and seriously heckled by China. Now India and China are not exactly friends, given that the ongoing border problem is more than 2 years old. It will have a wide wide-ranging and consequential impact in the IndoPacific too, particularly because unlike just trade deals, weapon exports increase strategic influence of the seller. It can enable expanded defence cooperation between New Delhi and key Southeast Asian countries.
III. The South China sea continues to simmer as a result of Beijing's ”historical claims" and "nine dash line”. The US has said that it “gravely undermines the rule of law”. This is something that India concurs with. The Phillipine acquisition might be quantitatively modest but it is rife with symbolism, as weaker nations will equip themselves with what they perceive as minimum deterrent capability. It is noteworthy, given that Beijing has disputes with all her neighbours.
IV. India by this, has firmly waded into the South China Sea disputes and has signalled to Beijing, that it can and will, ratchet up pressure for the dragon, in the sea like it did to India in the Himalayas. Thus, it would help to further solidify India’s geopolitical position in the region – which would be a considerable strategic leverage against China.
V. The Brahmos deal will also potentially serve as a springboard by the Quad, to enhance the deterrence capacity of smaller, aligned powers in the Indo-Pacific. India is in advanced talks with several countries like Vietnam, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia, and South Africa to sell them the BrahMos missile system. it would boost the credibility of India as a defense exporter and help it meet the target of $5 billion in defense exports by 2025.
VI. Philippines, has historically relied on American-made weapons. As this is a major non-NATO acquisition, the diversification by the Philippines could potentially include Russia.
“The BrahMos acquisition demonstrates Manila’s readiness to work with new defence partners in shoring up its maritime and coastal defence capabilities,” — Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, Research fellow, Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, Manila
VII. NPO Mashinostroyenia is one of the listed Russian entities. The missile system's ramjet engine and radar seekers, are provided by NPO Mashinostroyenia and hence technically liable to sanctions under CAATSA. However, the Philippines demonstrated that geopolitical and strategic necessities come first for it and not unilateral sanctions by any one country. This hopefully, might persuade others too to follow in its wake.
VIII. Post-Crimea annexation Russia has looked to improve relations with China. As of now, the two can be termed uneasy partners, at best. India cannot decide unilaterally on who to sell it to, as Brahmos is a joint venture. This speaks volumes about the uneasy state of relations between the Dragon and the bear. Beijing is looking to expand its footprints in Central Asia at Russia's cost and Russia is looking to return the favor with interest.Russia wants to strengthen its trade and economic partnership with Vietnam. Showing scant regard for China's inhibitions, it also wants cooperation in oil and gas exploration and exploitation, with the fastest growing Southeast Asian economy.
According to a report by Janes, Russia is also looking to strengthen her ties with key players in the IndoPacific. Read: The news report
With the honeymoon between the Russian Bear and the Chinese Dragon over for all practical purpose, there will not be any resistance to the sale as before.
Read: Sino Russian relations on the rock
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