In recent times despite the views of veterans to the
contrary there is a rising trend of jingoistic pronouncements by Indian
politicians. The resultant public sentiments and maelstrom are further whipped
up by a rabid media. However, the powers that be refrain from indulging in any
activity that match their rhetoric. In the rarest of rare event that they do,
they waste no time in coloring military achievements with political motives. Freedom
of the press is required and so is Freedom to express one’s opinion. However, this
should not be construed as a Freedom to broadcast our intentions to the enemy.
Expressing
his condolences over the dastardly Pulwama terror attack, the prime minister
tweeted, “Attack on CRPF personnel in Pulwama is despicable. I strongly condemn
this dastardly attack. The sacrifices of our brave security personnel shall not
go in vain. The entire nation stands shoulder to shoulder with the families of
the brave martyrs. May the injured recover quickly.” The others have notably
taken a more outspoken approach. However, in view of the fast-approaching
election and the present Prime Minister will be under tremendous pressure to
resort to some type of response.
This
explains the Withdrawal of the MFN status to
Pakistan.
However, considering that India’s trade numbers with
Pakistan are minuscule (India-Pakistan trade was a mere $2.29 billion, or about
0.35% of India’s overall trade in FY17). The move is intended to isolate
Pakistan diplomatically and squeeze the country’s industry. However, cash
strapped Pakistan is an acknowledged rogue nation and an international pariah. Combined
with this, the low volumes of trade limit the impact that such a step can have. The stoppage of input materials such
as chemicals and cotton from India will push up costs of production for the
relevant Pakistani industries. However, it will also give a handle to extremist
elements in Pakistan to scale up the anti-India rhetoric.
International reactions to the Pulwama attack have also
condemned the incident. The US, Russia, Maldives, Bhutan and Sri Lanka have all
condemned the attack on the CRPF convoy. The RSS general secretary said "The
attack is a sign of desperation and frustration due to the clampdown on
terrorism,". However, rhetoric apart not much else in the way of concrete
action is likely to come to the fore.
This is because Pakistan is a rogue state, tottering dangerously on the
brink of a precipice.
A rogue state is completely unpredictable.
The one silver lining in this dismal affair is that the
attack may also pressurize China, to alter its
position at the United Nations Security Council, where Beijing has
persistently blocked India's attempts to list Jaish-e-Mohammed and Azhar as
globally proscribed terrorists.
The mass displacement of people, terrorism and the resultant
law and order problem and the possession of tactical Nuclear Weapons are all
inhibiting factors. Taking all this into view, the Modi government will not
want a dangerous escalation to the problem. However, Modi is most likely to
authorize some sort of limited retaliation, such as artillery strikes, that
burnish his image of strength without risking calls for retaliation on the
Pakistani side and further dangerous escalation. This is because failure to
retaliate in any way is politically untenable.
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