The export of Brahmos to the Philippines, is very important as it carries a geopolitical significance. Not only does it concern the buyer and the seller nation but brings about the superpowers in its ambit too not to mention the superpower in waiting.
I. The stated aim has always been to be an exporter of defence armament rather than a net buyer. In case there is adequate client satisfaction, other ASEAN nations like Indonesia and Vietnam may also acquire this missile. India had been exporting defence items on the low end of the spectrum like Patrol vessels, military helmet etc and the nascent Indian credibility in this niche domain may give its image as a defence exporter a boost and thus act as a springboard for New Delhi's ambitions.
II. Phillipines is being browbeaten and seriously heckled by China. Now India and China are not exactly friends given that the ongoing border problem is more than 2 years old.
III. The South China sea continues to simmer as a result of Beijing's ”historical claims" and "nine dash line”. The US has said that it “gravely undermines the rule of law”. This is something that India concurs with. The Phillipine acquisition might be quantitatively modest but it is rife with symbolism, as weaker nations will equip themselves with what they perceive as minimum deterrent capability. It is noteworthy, that Beijing has disputes with all her neighbours.
IV. India by this, has firmly waded into the South China Sea disputes and has signalled to Beijing, that it can and will ratchet up pressure for the dragon, in the sea like it did to India in the Himalayas. Thus, it would help to further solidify India’s geopolitical position in the region – which would be a considerable strategic leverage against China.
V. The Brahmos deal will also potentially serve as a springboard by the Quad, to enhance the deterrence capacity of smaller, aligned powers in the Indo-Pacific.
VI. Philippines, has historically relied on American-made weapons. As this is a major non-NATO acquisition, the diversification by the Philippines could potentially include Russia.
“The BrahMos acquisition demonstrates Manila’s readiness to work with new defence partners in shoring up its maritime and coastal defence capabilities,” — Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, Research fellow, Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, Manila
VII. NPO Mashinostroyenia is one of the listed Russian entities. The missile system's ramjet engine and radar seekers, are provided by NPO Mashinostroyenia and hence technically liable to sanctions under CAATSA. However, the Philippines demonstrated that geopolitical and strategic necessities come first for it and not unilateral sanctions by any one country.
VIII. Post-Crimea annexation Russia has looked to improve relations with China. As of now, the two can be termed uneasy partners, at best. India cannot decide unilaterally on who to sell it to, as Brahmos is a joint venture.
This speaks volumes about the uneasy state of relations between the Dragon and the bear. Beijing is looking to expand its footprints in Central Asia at Russia's cost and Russia is looking to return the favor with interest.
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